The Lebanese elections were not expected to go without the results they came up with, and they are largely a reproduction of the previous situation and each party claims (victory), so the deteriorating Lebanese situation and its regional and international consequences will not be resolved. its complications and will continue to adversely affect neighborhoods and later neighborhoods. Much of what is happening in Lebanon has a trigger elsewhere, which is Tehran, and the election coincided with the famine revolution in Iran, which means a faster spread of internal problems in the neighborhood.
Lebanon faces many difficult files, but the file that regulates all files, weapons abroad, or as national activists call it (national sovereignty) and this file will not be resolved in Lebanon !!
Is the situation in Lebanon similar to another situation that can be measured and from which several approaches can be drawn to present a vision for a solution?
Closer to the mind is the Cuban experience in its extensive sketches. The Cuban people fought for independence for a long time and wavered, poverty and exploitation spread by a small minority allied with the foreigner and they fought numerous uprisings, until in the late fifties they achieved a revolution led by Fidel Castro and a small. group of his supporters.
The whole story is well known, but the similarity is that Castro, fearing his great neighbor, the United States, found his way to an alliance with the Soviet Union, which was ready for his victory to defeat the ideological enemy of the United States. United. became more complicated by allowing Cubans to install nuclear-tipped missile platforms near the United States, which blew up what was historically known as the missile crisis, which almost led to a global nuclear war. History is full with research.
However, the deepest thing we seek in the comparison between Lebanon and Cuba, given the differences, is the similarity in missions. Cuba was grateful for the Soviet Union’s position to defend it! But when an agreement was reached between the two poles (behind Cuba’s back) in the back rooms, the Cuban leadership split and Che Guevara became a fierce critic of the Soviet Union, until he called him in a speech at the (Soviet) imperialism), which the politician Castro disliked, so he separated Guevara from his official duties, after which the latter died, as is well known.
Cuba had to serve the Soviet Union, which it said not only secured its independence, but helped it financially after the US boycott and embargo, and paid a price for that gratitude by waging wars with representatives in every part of the world in which the Soviet state saw its interests. Thus, the Cubans became soldiers on the fronts of most of the world’s hot wars. Cuba intervened in Angola, Congo, Guinea-Bissau, Ogaden, Nicaragua and even southern Yemen. Hundreds of thousands of Cuban soldiers died in those wars, in which both camps fought instead of one.
The comparison is clear. Iran has used Hezbollah and its smallest loyal forces in the region to wage wars and sabotage the homeland, and the death of Lebanese in war or oppression, and wars still continue in Yemen, Iraq, Syria. and others below the surface, elsewhere in the great Arab arena, and questions are asked. A lot of blood is being shed in this conflict and vast resources are being wasted.
Cuban fear of the big neighbor has made him voluntarily present himself as the spearhead of the Soviet Union strategy and fight on all its fronts, and Hezbollah also presents itself using slogans including (so-called weak defense) for to mobilize them through persuasion (doctrinal) and temptation (material) and coercion (authoritarian) to be the spearhead of the Iranian project, as well as the loyal Iraqi armed forces, even if their homeland is destroyed, and the course covers all that project with many emotional slogans that find the passion of many people, including the Palestinian cause, which has become an umbrella nothing more, benefit and not benefits. Tehran seeks direct or indirect funding to support wars with representatives, even if large segments of the Iranian people suffer from poverty.
The Cuban issue did not end in relative terms until 1990, the year in which the Soviet Union fell, and international strategies changed, and Cuba gradually began to enter the framework of balanced international relations.
The analysis leads us to the fact that the conflict in the Middle East will either end in a radical change in the Iranian regime, or a radical change in its strategy, both of which have not yet matured. On the contrary, (supply) prevails. another issue is that the major powers (the West and America) make a deal from Back Doors with the Iranian regime (of course, Iran’s allies will not be consulted) to reach a solution, can cause some progress.
The assessment is that the most important and greatest interest of the Iranian regime is (not to be harmed) by the fear of a negative experience that is still deeply ingrained in the Iranian collective consciousness, which is (Mossaddeq projection), although This the latter, as has been historically proven, was not only a projection from the outside but also from the inside. Other files can be sacrificed when needed. This guarantee, if taken from the west, could gradually change the regime’s positions by stretching its arms and being told by a number of senior Iranian leaders that they (fight abroad so they do not have to fight at home)!
Until we reach that stage, it is clear that the road is long and it is political naivete to go after the sweet words that are refuted by actions. There is no stability in Lebanon, no matter how many ballot boxes, and there is no stability in Syria. or Iraq, no matter how many electoral cycles, but not stability in the region On the whole, but Iran will stand by its allies! Sabotage of Lebanon, Iraq, Syria or Yemen can be a small price … Those who pay are the Arabs!
In the face of this general scene, the Lebanese elections, or even those in Iraq, etc., are a partial detail of the raging conflict, for which the people today pay a heavy price.
The results of the Lebanese elections are the beginning of the conflict, not the end!