Putin’s Blitzkrieg, ends his regime?

Putin’s war on Ukraine, which he wanted as a “Blitzkrieg” war, experts believe will not end soon, but may last for years to come. And before it exploded, retired Russian politicians, analysts, and generals (Alexander Ivashov and his colleagues at a rally of Russian officers) warned that this war would have dire consequences, over which would be a worsening of brain drain. and youth, and the creation of a historical enmity between the two Slavic brotherly peoples. The reality of the current hatred that prevails between the Russian and Ukrainian people confirms the degree of historical danger that this warning carried. Deputy Chairman of Gazprom Bank, the third bank in Central and Eastern Europe, Igor Volopov, the Ukrainian who did not stay in Russia except for his scientific and financial experience, left his post in Moscow for his native Ukraine at the beginning of the month. passed. He received messages from Ukraine saying: “We are ashamed of you”.

Putin’s war against Ukraine, which he believed would be “a blitzkrieg that would end in a few days,” he himself acknowledged had failed, in his speech at the launch site of the Russian ship Vastochny. And in his admission this was echoing what has accompanied the war since its outbreak, when the army chief announced At the end of the first day of the war, the Ukrainian declared that Putin’s blitzkrieg attack failed and the Ukrainian army stood and Ukraine did not come out to welcome the invading Russian army. On the 22nd of last month, Putin’s spokesman came out in his interview with CNN to justify the Blitzkrieg’s failure by saying that no one in Russia was thinking from the beginning that the “special military operation” would end in two days.

The Ukrainian website UAINFO published earlier last month a report by a Russian analyst on the war against Ukraine entitled “Blitzkrieg” failed. The situation here is as in Germany 1943-1944. ” The professional analyst at the main security agency, the FSB (formerly the KGB), did not give his name and says that they are constantly looking for analytical information and this is followed by “letting go of all our dogs”. The order explains that none of the agency analysts knew about the war, however they ask them for analytical reports on the consequences of an imaginary event that may occur during it, such as the possibility of a meteor attack on prisons by Russian human rights. organizations. And then they ask them to focus on “realistic missions” in their reports because “there are not enough resources in Russia.” Suddenly they are bombarded with meteors, waiting for the consequences to match our nonsensical “analyzes.”

For this reason, the analyst believes that everything in the war went in the opposite direction. Russia has no defense against sanctions and no one knew such a war would take place, so it did not prepare for such sanctions, and “this is the other side of the secret.”

The analyst believes that “Blitzkrieg” has failed and it is impossible to carry out the mission set by the Kremlin for its war against Ukraine. He says estimates by military police, counterintelligence and the National Guard show that, in light of the minimum level of resistance to Ukraine, Russia needs 500,000 fighters and above, in addition to logistical missions. He emphasizes the impossibility of announcing a general mobilization for two main reasons: a comprehensive general mobilization leads to the collapse of the political, economic and social situation in the country; The logistics are excessive. These two reasons meet at the same time, knowing that one of them is enough to collapse everything.

As for the losses, the analyst believes that no one knows their size. In the first two days the situation was still under control, but now no one knows what is happening, large communication units can be lost and can be found later, as well as dispersed due to an attack. Unit commanders may not know how many escaped, how many were killed, and how many were captured. But the dead are in the thousands, and their number may fluctuate between ten thousand and five thousand and only two thousand, but it must be closer to 10 thousand.

In his monologue-like report, the intelligence analyst continues, with angry expressions, interruptions and gasps, referring to Russia’s situation in Syria comparable to its incompetence in Ukraine, and the possibility of using tactical nuclear weapons by Putin, and Kadyrov’s accusation against the FSB. passing maps of the movement of his forces in Ukraine. He says it all came together in one pile and made the Russians look like they were suddenly placed at the starting point for a 100-meter race and they were at the starting point for a long-distance marathon.

The analyst says this situation needs only one of the advisers to persuade the top command to launch a conflict with Europe to ask it to reduce sanctions: either reduce them or fight them. It is not ruled out that Europe would refuse to slide Russia into a global conflict, like Hitler in 1939, and then compare Z to the Nazi vortex. He claims that all this has piled up on top of each other and should eventually explode because the decision to leave it within days is impossible.

On the 27th of this month, the Russian Council on International Relations (RIAC) published a text for one of the directors of its program entitled “There is no time for fatalism.” The dangers that Russia currently faces, the writer classifies them into three categories, or baskets, as he calls them. In the first basket he collects the external risks and their details, in the second he talks about the risks of underdevelopment in the organization of the economy and state administration and in the third he talks about a group of threats related to the riots and the crisis. of the Russian state. He says Russia faced these combined threats in the most tragic stages of its history, such as in 1917-1920, when Russia experienced two revolutions and the anxieties of World War I, and then the interventionist war and the collapse of the Economy. .

He believes that after February 24, these risk groups can all come together at one point. He considers that the repetition of the 1917 scenario is not inevitable, but this combination of challenges creates an unprecedented dangerous situation for Russia.

The writer considers that the situation at the end of 2021 was not optimal, but Russia had room to maneuver. However, the launch of the military operation significantly changed the situation, as Ukraine remained a priority for the West, and the boldest dreams of those who hate Russia came true. The European Union is strengthening its defense capabilities, Eastern Europe is full of military forces, and Ukraine is receiving military aid that its hawks could not have dreamed of.

Combining the risks of the three baskets will be a choice for the viability of the Russian state. The amount of blows can lead to catastrophic scenarios, including a palace coup, a spontaneous rebellion, and even civil war with outside participation. It may turn out that bets on the West’s downfall are an illusion and Russia is the weakest link. But these scenarios are not inevitable and Russia, in any case, will inevitably suffer painful changes and suffer losses, but will appear on a fundamentally different basis in its life. However, now it is impossible with the future that awaits Russia. It should not be forgotten that the Soviet Union collapsed and is in conditions of international relations without better measures, so internal and external shocks do not determine the future itself. Russia’s future depends on itself, and now is not the time to rely on fate.

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